Politics in America have always been contentious and sometimes downright brutally nasty. During the past thirty-five or forty years the fissures in our political system have become even more deep-seated and less capable of repair. Many political players in today’s America no longer seek a more perfect union; instead, they prefer hurtling towards a wrathful divorce.
Given this atmosphere, it is no surprise that Joe Biden’s approval numbers seem anemic. The latest polling averages from the FiveThirtyEight project have Biden’s approval rate at 41.6%. But his potential GOP rivals are all worse. Donald Trumps’ approval rate is 40.3%; Ron Desantis’, 34.4%; Mike Pence’s, 31.6%; Nikki Haley’s, 27.6%; Tim Scott’s, 27.4% and Vivek Ramaswamy, 24.9%.
The universal dissing of political figures---and institutions, is rampant. Congress has an approval rating of 20%; the US Supreme Court is at 30%.
Last month New York Times’s columnist David Brooks used the “misery index” to illustrate how upside down Biden’s approval ratings are. The index, created by adding the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, has been used to judge the health of the US economy for years and has generally predicted the re-election success of a sitting president. Today, with inflation at 3% and unemployment at 3.6%, the misery index is only 6.6.
Comparative numbers for presidents seeking re-election since 1984, range from Reagan’s 11.4 to Donald Trump’s 7.7. Trump lost as did George H. W. Bush who was weighed down with a 10.3 misery index in 1992. So for Biden, 6.6 should make 2024 a romp.
Brooks offered a few reasons that might explain why the current conventional wisdom appears different.
One struck me as an obvious factor---the negative tone in the news media in recent years. “Anger and fear” instead of “inform and enlighten” seems to be the ruling mantra, especially in social media which thrives on conflict to generate traffic.
There are a couple of other factors that work against a reasonable assessment of Biden’s performance as president.
American voters crave excitement---give us the “man on the white horse.” All our problems will succumb to the lone champion riding nobly on his trusty steed into the fray. That’s not the way it works. FDR is credited with being America’s savior, rescuing us from the Great Depression. But he always had a Democratic-controlled Congress, as did LBJ. In the American system, the president can lead; he cannot bulldoze.
A second factor that weighs against positive perceptions of Biden is the insistence of American voters that all issues be resolved today---not tomorrow, not next week, today. Usually this attitude is reinforced by the human tendency to see our problem as the most important societal concern.
This kind of thinking has produced the No Labels political organization, a group committed to the notion that to straighten out our politics all we need to do is find the right president with the will to act. Sounds easy and wonderful, and then Joe Manchin is floated as a possible candidate.
Biden is not exciting, but his accomplishments are extraordinary given the cards he has been dealt. Although saddled with a super partisan Congress, Biden has been able to enact four major economic programs: American Rescue Plan, Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Act. The last actually received only two Republican votes in the house and 19 in the senate, but Biden was generous in his recognition. All in all, these acts will invest nearly $4 trillion in the US economy over the next decade.
Characteristically, his efforts have been steady and persistent. Thus far, they have produced 13 million new jobs, including 800,000 in manufacturing where investment has doubled, cut inflation in half and bolstered tax collections. Biden has also set in motion programs that are beginning to address climate change seriously and to bring drug prices under control.
His commitment to relieving the burden of student loan debt and the despair of a broken immigration system reflects Biden’s dogged determination to find solutions to difficult issues despite the unruly attitude of the opposition party, and some in his own party.
In the area of foreign affairs, Biden has restored American prestige and honor among our traditional allies and has made it clear to our detractors that the United States will defend its interests vigorously. No other presidential candidate in either party has the international experience that Biden brings to the table.
Yes, he’s 80 years old. That’s eight decades in which he has acquired experience and wisdom to guide decision making. It’s not something to toss aside on the chance there might be an unpolished diamond out there in the rough.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/ron-desantis/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-plan.html